OpenAI’s recent shift toward integrating advertising into ChatGPT could transform the way marketers reach audiences and shift the balance of power in digital advertising. According to a new analysis by Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney, OpenAI’s evolving ad business — still in its early testing phase — could grow into an annual revenue stream of more than $25 billion by 2030, potentially challenging Google’s dominance in online advertising.

The projections are grounded in OpenAI’s rapid user growth and efforts to start serving ads to users of its free and “Go” tiers. As of late 2025, the company reportedly surpassed 900 million weekly active users, making ChatGPT one of the fastest‑growing consumer tech platforms in history and an attractive new channel for advertisers seeking high engagement.

Unlike traditional digital ad formats, OpenAI’s approach involves ads integrated contextually into AI‑powered interactions. Initial tests are expected to place advertising content at the bottom of relevant ChatGPT responses or within consumer purchase journeys, making them more conversational and less intrusive than classic display ads. OpenAI has pledged to maintain user privacy by not selling conversation data to advertisers and ensuring that ads do not influence the AI’s core responses.

Mahaney’s analysis suggests that releasing this ad model could attract advertisers who value “high‑intent engagement,” since users often reveal purchase intent directly through queries in the AI chatbot. If executed successfully, this strategy could allow OpenAI to siphon off ad dollars traditionally spent on search and social platforms, placing pressure on Google’s ad business over the next decade.

Notwithstanding the potential upside, the path ahead carries risk. Analysts note that balancing monetization with user experience will be crucial, as poorly implemented ads could alienate users or degrade trust. Furthermore, entrenched players like Google and Meta — with deep infrastructure and established measurement tools — still dominate much of the digital marketing ecosystem. Despite these challenges, OpenAI’s ad pivot illustrates how AI‑driven conversational platforms are becoming central to future advertising strategies.